Data firm Civis Analytics says in a new report that Maricopa County could be the second greatest undercount in the 2020 U.S. Census.
Miami-Dade County ranks at the top of the list as most likely to be undercounted. This amounts to a loss of up to $13.2 million in communities, many of which are already underfunded.
Census data plays an important role in how $675 billion in federal funding is spent.
“What we’re very interested in is who at the end of the entire census process won’t be counted at all," Johnathan Williams, applied data manager at Civis Analytics, recently told the Scottsdale Independent "The census has programs and provisions to try to do nonresponse followup or to even ask a neighbor or statistically estimate where people might be, but none of these methods that they have are as good as self-response.”
Programs such as education grants, Medicare, and low-income insurance for children will be the most affected by the undercount.
Civis Analytics report estimates that about 1.3% of the population is undercounted, which amounts to 70,500 in the county. In 2020, the total population amounts to 4.5 million.
The groups most likely to be undercounted are blacks, Latinx, and the undocumented. Grassroots activists reach out to the community to encourage participation, but many do not trust the government.
Another additional factor impacting the census count is the spread of the coronavirus. Due to the effects of COVID-19, low-income and rural communities are more likely to be undercounted.
Census takers have been delayed from going door-to-door. This means they will put off visiting houses that have not yet self-responded.
Currently, there is no plan to carry on with the door-to-door visits.
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