Arizona’s budget surplus drops from $2.53B to $200M since Hobbs took office

Craig Berland Chairman
Craig Berland Chairman
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When Governor Katie Hobbs took office in January 2023, Arizona had a projected budget surplus of about $1.8 billion, according to reports from the Associated Press and Politico at the time. Some sources cited figures as high as $2–2.5 billion when considering one-time resources or structural surpluses left by the previous administration.

In her FY2024 executive budget proposal presented in January 2023, Hobbs outlined plans to deposit $250 million into the state’s rainy day fund. This would have resulted in an estimated general fund ending balance of $1.6 billion for FY2024, which was described as the highest in state history.

As of March 2026, Arizona no longer has a large budget surplus. The FY2026 budget is balanced, with General Fund revenues running about 3.7% higher year-to-date through January 2026 compared to the prior year, based on data from recent JLBC Monthly Fiscal Highlights.

Governor Hobbs’ FY2027 executive budget proposal, released in January 2026, projects that spending remains below the constitutional appropriations limit. Recent JLBC reports indicate there is no structural shortfall in the baseline outlook and that revenues have exceeded expectations after previous financial pressures.

There were projected shortfalls in fiscal years 2024 and 2025—amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars and sometimes described as up to $1 billion when including tax conformity issues and school voucher or ESA expansion costs. These gaps were addressed through budgets that used spending restraint, one-time adjustments, and stronger-than-expected revenue performance. Currently, there is no ongoing deficit; Arizona maintains positive balances and some fiscal flexibility.

Official figures can differ depending on definitions such as general fund ending balance versus structural surplus or total available one-time funds, and are updated regularly with JLBC forecasts.

The summary states: “$2.53 Billion surplus June 30, 2023. March 2026, $200 million surplus. This means – $2.33 billion of surplus spent by Hobbs.”

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